Although there is still a gap in display technology between Korea and China, it has been argued that Korean display companies should have price competitiveness as soon as possible.

On the 23rd, at the ‘OLED Settlement Seminar for the first half of 2022’ held at COEX in Samsung-dong, Seoul, UBI Research CEO Choong-Hoon Yi made a presentation on ‘Forecast of the small OLED market, which China is chasing fiercely’.

CEO Yi announced, “Currently, the media reports that the technological gap between Korea and China has almost narrowed, but making and displaying products and mass-producing products are two different things, and the technological gap between Korea and China is still significant.” He continued, “Samsung Display is planning various products such as slideable and Z-folding based on technological competitiveness. However, it will be difficult to commercialize it immediately because the slideable phone invades the existing foldable phone market.”

CEO Yi said, “It is very important not only to develop technological competitiveness, but also to increase price competitiveness. The reason Korean companies closed the LCD business is not because of the good technology of Chinese companies, but because they were pushed back in price competitiveness.”, and “As the technology advances, the performance difference felt by ordinary consumers becomes insignificant, so products with good price competitiveness are inevitable in the market,” he analyzed.

Finally, “China’s OLED industry is growing under the enormous support from the government. In order not to lose the lead in the OLED market like LCD to China, it is essential for domestic companies to prepare for price competitiveness and the government’s support policy,” he concluded.

At UBI Research’s ‘2022 OLED Korea Conference’ held on April 6th-8th, UBI Research CEO Choong-Hoon Lee gave a presentation on, ‘OLED Market Review’.

CEO Lee presented the status of the entire OLED industry, market, and outlook with a focus on issues in 2022.

CEO Lee first announced the OLED TV business, a major issue in the recent OLED industry. CEO Lee said, “The biggest issue that has been heating up the OLED industry since the end of last year is OLED TV. There are topics such as Samsung Display’s re-entry into the large OLED business, sales of QD-OLED TVs between Samsung Electronics and Sony, and visualization of collaboration between Samsung Electronics and LG Display.”

In the TV OLED panel demand and supply forecast, CEO Lee said, “If Samsung Electronics purchases OLED panels from LG Display and conducts OLED TV business, LG Display and Samsung Display can supply a total of 12 million TV OLED panels this year. Among them, demand is 11.7 million units, and oversupply accounts for only 3%.” In addition, “With the joining of Samsung Electronics, the demand for OLED TV panels is expected to expand to 13 million units in 2023 and 20 million units in 2025. According to the expanding market, companies need to expand their facilities by the third quarter of this year” he predicted.

CEO Lee continued, “LG ​​Display has been working hard to secure funds for 8.5 generation OLED line expansion since last year, and it is estimated that it will secure additional funds for 45K expansion within this year. With LG Display’s additional measures, the TV OLED panel market is expected to reach 13.5 million units in 2023 and 16 million units after 2024. However, to secure a market of more than 20 million units, it is necessary to plan to invest in the 10.5 generation by next year” he analyzed. He also said, “If Samsung Display invests, 10.5G investment is desirable, but 8.5G investment is expected.” He said, “Whether LG Display invests or Samsung Display invests, a long-term supply contract with Samsung Electronics for 10.5G investment should take precedence. If the investment proceeds, Samsung Display is expected to secure its own funds, but LG Display is expected to require joint investment with Samsung Electronics.”

‘2022 OLED Korea Conference’ was a conference for exchange of ideas, business relationships, and partnerships with renowned speakers from major companies in the display industry from all over the world. ‘2022 OLED Korea Conference’ held a business conference on the 7th and 8th, beginning with a tutorial on April 6th.

At UBI Research’s ‘2021 OLED settlement seminar for the second half of the year’ held on the 19th, UBI Research CEO Choong-Hoon Yi gave a presentation on the settlement of small/mid-large OLED industry and future market prospects.

CEO Yi said, “The total sales of OLED for mobile devices in the third quarter was $10.3 billion, up 23.6% from the second quarter and 64.1% from the same period last year. OLED for phones grew to a meaningful number for the first time to $540 million in the third quarter.”

According to the announcement by CEO Yi, the total shipment of smartphones and foldable phones in the third quarter was 167 million, up 22.7% from the previous quarter and 55.3% from the same period of the previous year. “The smartphone market contracted in 2020 due to the spread of Corona 19 and sanctions by Huawei, but the market is growing out of this situation in 2021 thanks to the popularity of Apple’s iPhone 12,” said CEO Yi.

Comparing OLED shipments for smartphones in the third quarter by panel maker, Samsung Display took 72.9%, followed by BOE and LG Display with 9.4% and 5.8%, respectively. CEO Yi mentioned, “Samsung Display maintained 80% level just a year ago, but BOE is gradually gaining strength as BOE’s production lines are being prepared step by step.” and “In terms of sales, Samsung Display accounted for 79.0%, which is higher than the shipment share, and BOE, 8.8%, which is lower than the shipment share. This result appears because the panels of Samsung Display and LG Display are sold to Apple at the highest price.”

Next, CEO Yi predicted, “In terms of OLED shipments by country, Korea dominates the market with 78.7%, but the Chinese market, which currently accounts for 21.3%, will gradually grow and the shipments of the two countries will become similar in about five years.” He also predicted, “In order for the industry to grow, the top-level set makers in the supply chain are important, and based on China’s numerous set makers and the large domestic market, it is highly likely that the leadership will be transferred to China in about five years.”

In the smartphone market forecast analysis, CEO Yi said, “In 2021, OLED shipments for smartphones and foldable phones are expected to reach 580 million units, and the market will grow by 100 million units in the next two years, reaching 600 million units in 2023 and 700 million units in 2025. We will overcome it,” he predicted.

Samsung Display begins mass production of QD-OLED in the fourth quarter of 2021, a new growth opportunity in the large OLED market

Samsung Display is planning to start mass production of QD-OLED in earnest from the fourth quarter of 2021. The mass production scale is 8.5G 30K/month, and it is expected to be mass-produced mainly for 65-inch 4K resolution panels. Since three 65-inch panels can be produced in the 8.5th generation, about 1 million panels are expected to be mass-produced annually.

At the closing seminar held in the second half of 2020, UBI Research predicted that Samsung Display’s QD-OLED will produce 200,000 units in 2021, 600,000 units in 2022, and 800,000 units in 2025. However, as Samsung Display announced in its second quarter conference call that it will also introduce a monitor product with a smaller QD display than a TV, production is expected to vary depending on the proportion of products..

If mass production begins in the fourth quarter, QD-OLED TV will be unveiled for the first time at the CES 2022 exhibition held in Las Vegas in 2022, and the product is expected to be officially released in the first half of the year.

Joo-seon Choi, president of Samsung Display, emphasized in a recently published sustainability report that “If QD displays are commercialized, new growth opportunities will be created in the large display industry, which has been stagnant for a long time.”

Attention is paid to how much influence Samsung Display’s QD-OLED mass production will have in the large OLED market led by LG Display.

<Expected structure of QD-OLED, Source: UBI Research>