At UBI Research’s ‘2022 OLED Korea Conference’ held on April 6th-8th, UBI Research CEO Choong-Hoon Lee gave a presentation on, ‘OLED Market Review’.

CEO Lee presented the status of the entire OLED industry, market, and outlook with a focus on issues in 2022.

CEO Lee first announced the OLED TV business, a major issue in the recent OLED industry. CEO Lee said, “The biggest issue that has been heating up the OLED industry since the end of last year is OLED TV. There are topics such as Samsung Display’s re-entry into the large OLED business, sales of QD-OLED TVs between Samsung Electronics and Sony, and visualization of collaboration between Samsung Electronics and LG Display.”

In the TV OLED panel demand and supply forecast, CEO Lee said, “If Samsung Electronics purchases OLED panels from LG Display and conducts OLED TV business, LG Display and Samsung Display can supply a total of 12 million TV OLED panels this year. Among them, demand is 11.7 million units, and oversupply accounts for only 3%.” In addition, “With the joining of Samsung Electronics, the demand for OLED TV panels is expected to expand to 13 million units in 2023 and 20 million units in 2025. According to the expanding market, companies need to expand their facilities by the third quarter of this year” he predicted.

CEO Lee continued, “LG ​​Display has been working hard to secure funds for 8.5 generation OLED line expansion since last year, and it is estimated that it will secure additional funds for 45K expansion within this year. With LG Display’s additional measures, the TV OLED panel market is expected to reach 13.5 million units in 2023 and 16 million units after 2024. However, to secure a market of more than 20 million units, it is necessary to plan to invest in the 10.5 generation by next year” he analyzed. He also said, “If Samsung Display invests, 10.5G investment is desirable, but 8.5G investment is expected.” He said, “Whether LG Display invests or Samsung Display invests, a long-term supply contract with Samsung Electronics for 10.5G investment should take precedence. If the investment proceeds, Samsung Display is expected to secure its own funds, but LG Display is expected to require joint investment with Samsung Electronics.”

‘2022 OLED Korea Conference’ was a conference for exchange of ideas, business relationships, and partnerships with renowned speakers from major companies in the display industry from all over the world. ‘2022 OLED Korea Conference’ held a business conference on the 7th and 8th, beginning with a tutorial on April 6th.

At UBI Research’s ‘2021 OLED settlement seminar for the second half of the year’ held on the 19th, UBI Research CEO Choong-Hoon Yi gave a presentation on the settlement of small/mid-large OLED industry and future market prospects.

CEO Yi said, “The total sales of OLED for mobile devices in the third quarter was $10.3 billion, up 23.6% from the second quarter and 64.1% from the same period last year. OLED for phones grew to a meaningful number for the first time to $540 million in the third quarter.”

According to the announcement by CEO Yi, the total shipment of smartphones and foldable phones in the third quarter was 167 million, up 22.7% from the previous quarter and 55.3% from the same period of the previous year. “The smartphone market contracted in 2020 due to the spread of Corona 19 and sanctions by Huawei, but the market is growing out of this situation in 2021 thanks to the popularity of Apple’s iPhone 12,” said CEO Yi.

Comparing OLED shipments for smartphones in the third quarter by panel maker, Samsung Display took 72.9%, followed by BOE and LG Display with 9.4% and 5.8%, respectively. CEO Yi mentioned, “Samsung Display maintained 80% level just a year ago, but BOE is gradually gaining strength as BOE’s production lines are being prepared step by step.” and “In terms of sales, Samsung Display accounted for 79.0%, which is higher than the shipment share, and BOE, 8.8%, which is lower than the shipment share. This result appears because the panels of Samsung Display and LG Display are sold to Apple at the highest price.”

Next, CEO Yi predicted, “In terms of OLED shipments by country, Korea dominates the market with 78.7%, but the Chinese market, which currently accounts for 21.3%, will gradually grow and the shipments of the two countries will become similar in about five years.” He also predicted, “In order for the industry to grow, the top-level set makers in the supply chain are important, and based on China’s numerous set makers and the large domestic market, it is highly likely that the leadership will be transferred to China in about five years.”

In the smartphone market forecast analysis, CEO Yi said, “In 2021, OLED shipments for smartphones and foldable phones are expected to reach 580 million units, and the market will grow by 100 million units in the next two years, reaching 600 million units in 2023 and 700 million units in 2025. We will overcome it,” he predicted.

According to the market track for the second quarter of 2020 published by UBI Research, the total OLED shipments in the second quarter were 107 million units, down 13.4% (QoQ) from 124 million units in the last quarter. In addition, it decreased by 16.6% (YoY) compared to the 122 million units in the second quarter of 2019. This is because sales of OLED set devices decreased due to the aftermath of COVID-19.

However, it was found that the OLED market for smartphones that support the OLED market was significantly affected by COVID-19 compared to the overall market.

OLED shipments for smartphones in the second quarter were 87 million units, down 17% from the previous quarter (QoQ), and 23.1% from the same quarter last year (YoY). Compared to the decline in overall OLED shipments, the decline in OLED shipments for smartphones is even greater. However, the reason for the decline in OLED shipments for smartphones is concentrated on rigid OLEDs.

Despite the sharp decline in OLED shipments for smartphones, flexible OLEDs grew 38% compared to the same quarter last year.

However, the YoY of rigid OLED shipments was -40.3%, a sharp decline from the same quarter last year.

The reason why the increase in flexible OLED for smartphones has soared and the shipments of rigid OLEDs have fallen sharply is because Chinese smartphone makers reduced production of mid-priced smartphones using rigid OLEDs and increased smartphone shipments using flexible OLEDs.

According to UBI Research’s CEO Choong Hoon YI, the reason Chinese smartphone makers have increased their flexible OLED smartphone shipments is: First, due to the influence of Apple, Chinese smartphone makers also use OLED for their flagship models. In particular, Chinese smartphone makers use the name plus or max, which are used by Apple and Samsung Electronics, for the highest-end specifications, and imitate that they are making a product that is equivalent to Apple and Samsung Electronics, which are the most recognized in the smartphone market. The second reason is that Chinese display makers have improved OLED manufacturing technology, allowing them to produce panels similar to Samsung Display’s OLED. In particular, it is because Chinese panel makers are supplying panels at 60% of Samsung Display’s price, so Chinese smartphone makers have increased the choice of flexible OLEDs. The third reason is that Chinese panel makers can supply OLEDs at low prices because of the Chinese government’s subsidy policy.

YI said that the OLED industry will become more active due to the increase in OLED usage by Chinese smartphone makers, but the growth of Samsung Display’s OLED business, which has maintained a monopoly position in the smartphone OLED market, may stop growing due to the increase in production of Chinese panel makers.

The cover window material of Samsung Electronics ‘Galaxy Z Fold 2’ which will be released in the second half of this year, is UTG like ‘Galaxy Z Filp’. The reason why Samsung Electronics prefers UTG is analyzed for its sense of luxury, differentiation, and sensitivity for the touch pen expected to be applied in the future.

In 2021, the market for over 10 million foldable phones is expected to expand, and the main cover window material of Samsung’s foldable phones will be UTG. To respond to this, Dowooinsys should increase their capacity.

Dowooinsys’ capa is estimated to be 250K/month for 6 inch cells and 375K/month for 7 inch cells. Even if the 6 inch line will be converted to a 7 inch line in the future, it will be 500K/month. Considering the yield of Dowooinsisy and Samsung Display’s Vietnamese module line, more than 4 to 5 lines should be expanded.

Currently, Samsung Display’s Vietnamese module line is assumed as 450K/month considering the yield, but the Vietnamese module line is continually being converted into a foldable line. Even in response to the current situation that Samsung Electronics prefers UTG, Dowooinsys is expected to expand more lines in the second half of this year, and its location is also expected to be considered near Samsung Display’s Vietnamese module line.

With the expansion of Dowooinsys’ additional lines, the market of cover window materials for foldable phones is expected to change in the future. At UBI Research’s ‘Next-Generation Display Technology and Industry Outlook Seminar’ held in mid-July, it is predicted that UTG will lead the future market at a ratio of 7:3 with colorless polyimide.