The biggest difference between flexible OLED and foldable OLED will be the cover window material. In terms of price competitiveness, various Colorless Poly Imide (CPI) are superior to suppliers, but in the end, the cover window market is expected to depend on which material Samsung Electronics and Apple choose.

Samsung Display plans to supply only foldable OLEDs using UTG (Ultra Thin Glass) to Samsung Electronics and other China this year, and is expected to adopt UTG as the main cover window material in the future.

BOE and CSOT currently focus on transparent PI, but they are securing technology by continuously collaborating with UTG-related glass processing companies. For this reason, according to the UBI Research component and materials market track, UTG is expected to occupy 80% of the market for foldable cover windows in the future, and transparent PI is low in price and easy to apply to products larger than 10 inches As a result, it is expected to be applied to low-end models, tablets, and notebook models.

Although Samsung Display’s rigid OLED line is expected to decrease due to a decrease in Huawei’s volume due to the US production, demand for rigid OLEDs is expected to increase as demand for laptops, monitors and tablet PCs is increasing. To respond to this, investment in rigid OLED lines in A4 is also being reviewed. This year’s notebook OLED panel is expected to come out with more than 10 different model product lines, and Apple’s OLED production for iPad is scheduled to start from 2022, so demand for middle and large-sized OLED panels is expected to increase.

In addition, LG Display, a leader in P-OLED supplying in the automotive field, is planning to supply plastic OLEDs for automobiles to German car makers by producing premium OLED panels, and Samsung Display is also supplying OLED panels for vehicles.

According to the 2021 middle and large OLED annual report published by UBI Research, the total sales of middle and large-sized OLEDs in 2020 was $3.882.7 million, and last year was $2.63 billion, an increase of 40.2% from the previous year. By application, the notebook and automobile markets have increased remarkably, and the notebook, monitor, and automotive product markets are expected to grow in 2021.

Samsung Display’s QD-OLED mass production is expected to be around December 2021, and 65-inch panels are highly likely to be used by Sony. Samsung Electronics is expected to receive only 32-inch QD-OLEDs for monitors, not purchasing 65 inches.

LG Display’s 2020 TV OLED panel shipments were counted to 4.4 million units, and if the Guangzhou plant operates at 90K from the third quarter, the production capacity will reach 8.5 million units in 2021.

Dark clouds are approaching Korean industry by the corona virus that has been blown since the beginning of the year. Wuhan, the birthplace of the corona virus, is badly affecting the Chinese display industry because it is a key place where Chinese display makers are building large production bases.

Wuhan and other plant set-ups are experiencing difficulties due to the lack of manpower needed to build the line. At the same time, the utilization rate of the entire supply chain in China is falling sharply, as the labor force of parts and materials manufacturers in China is delayed to return to the factory. In the smartphone industry, the center of the OLED industry, iPhone production is affected in the first quarter. Foxconn’s factories, which produce iPhones in Zhangzhou and Shenzhen, China, are operating at 50% at end-February. This is because manufacturing workers are returning to the factory late. Companies such as Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo are also hampering smartphone production due to delays in parts procurement.

Nevertheless, the production of OLED smartphones is not much affected yet. First, Samsung Display’s panel production plant, which accounts for 86.3% (2019) of OLED shipments for smartphones, is located in Korea, while the module plant in Vietnam is not affected by China. In addition, the supply chain has no effect as most of the material production bases that make up OLED panels (including modules) are also in Korea.

Samsung Display’s OLED production for smartphones in January and February totaled 48 million units, less than 2 million units compared to 50 million units shipped in the same period in 2019. Of these, 14 million and 17 million units were supplied to Chinese smartphone makers in 2019 and 2020, respectively. This year, more than 3 million units are shipped. So far, Samsung Display’s OLED business is not affected by the corona virus.

The total market share of Chinese OLED panel makers in 2019 is 11.7%. By February, the panel utilization rate of Chinese OLED panel makers was maintained at 80%. The impact of factory operation due to lack of manpower is about 20% because most of the display manufacturing industry is driven by automated facilities. Chinese OLED makers import most of the major materials, including light emitting materials, from Korea and Japan, so they are hardly affected by the corona virus.

The parts procurement status of smartphone makers in China affects the market. If Chinese suppliers, including Huawei, fail to procure parts in China, smartphone production will be hampered. However, as Samsung Display’s OLED production for China is progressing smoothly, Chinese smartphone makers have a strategy of maintaining OLED smartphones, which are expensive brands.

In addition, the first quarter is the off-season with the lowest shipment season, so even if it is difficult to operate a smartphone manufacturing plant until March, the impact on the overall market is about 10%. After the second quarter, if the corona virus subsides, demand can resume.

The problem is from March. China’s corona virus has slowed down, but South Korea has been expanding since the last week of February. There is someone has a virus at Samsung’s Gumi smartphone manufacturing plant. In addition, the Vietnamese authorities, concerned about the influx of South Korea’s virus, refused to visit Koreans, which may make it difficult for the headquarters to properly deal with problems with Samsung Display’s module plant management in Vietnam.

Most important of all, the corona virus is spreading all over the world, and economic activity is severely reduced. In China, the entrance of the apartment is blocked, so it is difficult to bring TV. The Chinese TV market is shrinking. Many people are refusing to go out because they are concerned about a corona virus infection, so fewer people visit a store and buy a smartphone. Consumer sentiment is falling significantly.

Assuming that the corona virus crisis will end in March in Korea and China, the impact of the smartphone OLED industry on 2020 is estimated to be about 5%, but if it is prolonged, it may be adversely affected by more than 10%. Assuming that the corona virus crisis will end in March, the impact of the smartphone OLED industry on 2020 is estimated to be around 5%, but if it continues until the first half of the year, it could be adversely affected by 10%.

The OLED business for TV is slightly different. LG Display’s factories that produce exclusive OLED panels for TVs are located in Paju, Korea, and Guangzhou, China. The Paju plant is not disrupted at all. Like OLEDs for smartphones, parts and components are mostly supplied by Korean and Japanese companies, so Paju factory is not affected by China.

The problem is the Guangzhou plant. LG Display has been expected to produce panels since September 2019, but its supply has been delayed due to poor panel lifetime. LG Display has begun production of panels again this year and is undergoing product tests from customers. Recently, however, the corona virus has begun to spread in Korea, making it difficult for Korean engineers to go to Guangzhou. Even if the corona virus disappears in the first quarter in China and the factories operate normally, it may take some time before the panel is supplied from the Guangzhou plant.

According to Ubi Research’s OLED market track, the 2020 forecast is 4.95 million units without considering the corona virus situation, of which 750,000 OLED panels for TV can be produced by LG Display in the first quarter. If the 55-inch production volume is large, up to 800,000 units can be produced. Since the data were prepared in anticipation that panels produced at the GuangZhou plant will be available from the second quarter, LG Display’s panel supply is expected to be 1.4 million units in the second quarter.

However, it is possible that production will be delayed after May if the customer’s quality certification of panels produced at Guangzhou plant is delayed due to the Korean coronavirus rather than the Chinese coronavirus. In that case, the annual TV panel production could be reduced by about 200,000 units, which is expected to decrease by 4% from the estimated total. However, if the corona virus is prolonged by June, it can cause up to 10% of adverse effects. The market should consider 500,000 fewer than expected.

According to the OLED market track published by UBI Research in the third quarter, OLED sales increased to $ 6.9 billion in the second quarter. This is an increase of 9.5% compared to last quarter, an increase of 18.5% from the same quarter last year.

The biggest reason for the increase in sales is the increase in OLED sales to China by Samsung Display, which leads the OLED industry. Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiomi’s OLED usage increased more than 1.5 times compared to last year, and Samsung Display’s sales in the second quarter were $ 5.5 billion. In addition, LG Display’s WRGB OLED sales growth and BOE’s flexible OLED sales boosted the market to $ 6.9 billion.

Samsung Display’s sales share accounted for 79.9% and BOE’s market share increased to 6%.

<Source: 3Q2019 UBI Research OLED Market Track>

In 3Q, sales are expected to increase further. Samsung Display’s flexible OLED shipments will increase further for Apple’s new models and Huawei’s Mate. LG Display will also begin supplying flexible OLEDs to Apple, and BOE has decided to supply flexible OLEDs to LG Electronics.

According to the 3Q AMOLED Market Track issued by UBI Research, the second quarter OLED market was sluggish, affected by the lower utilization rate of Samsung Display. However, in the third quarter, the market rebounded rapidly, forming a market of US$ 8.3 billion.
The performance of the third quarter is up 43.9% from the US$ 5.77 billion in the second quarter, and up 16.6% from the same period of last year.

Samsung Display, which drove sales growth, posted sales of US$ 7 billion, while OLED sales for Smartphone accounted for US $ 7.2 billion as its major application.
By country, Korea achieved sales of US$ 7.9 billion, accounting for 95.5% of the total market. China occupied 4.3% of total sales with US $ 360 million.
Yi Choong-hoon, CEO of UBI Research, explained that 3Q sales growth was attributable to Samsung Display’s production of Galaxy Note and Flexible OLED for Apple’s iPhone XS.

Attentions are growing for the foldable smartphone since it can provide a wider screen and higher resolution than the display of conventional smartphones, while maintaining the portability of the smartphone. The foldable smartphone is a smartphone when folded, and it becomes a tablet PC when it is unfolded. Following Samsung Electronics, Huawei is also aiming to launch a smartphone with a foldable display this year.

Yi Choong-Hoon, president of UBI Research, said, “Ideal foldable displays require such kind of reliability that there is no problem even with more than 300,000 times folding at the bending radius of 1R or less. For this, some changes or innovations are needed in the material and structure of the display.

In the ‘2018 OLED Component & Material Report’ published by UBI Research on May 21, 2018, the key issues and development trends for foldable OLED display with a bending radius of 1R are described together with the classified contents of structural change to secure reliability at thickness reduction and alternative material development.

<Change in OLED panel thickness accoding to bending radius, 2018 OLED component & material report, UBI Research>

In addition, the report covers the application status, development trends, and market forecast of key components and materials for rigid OLED and flexible OLED for mobile device, and large-area OLED for TV. Thus, it is helpful for the related part and material companies to develop their future directions, establish business strategies, and analyze technology and market trends.

Samsung Electronics achieved sales of 65.98 trillion won and business profit of 15.15 trillion won through the fourth quarter of 2017 performance conference call which was held on 31 January. Moreover, Samsung Electronics achieved 11.18 trillion won and business profit of 1.41 trillion won in display business.

Display business sales was increased up to 35% compared to the former quarter and 50.7% compared to the same quarter of the last year. The business profit was increased up to 45.4% compared to the former quarter and 52% compared to the same quarter of the last year. Display business achieved annual sales of 34.46 trillion won and business profit of 5.39 trillion won. OLED sales in the display business accounted for the latter half of 70%.

According to Samsung Electronics, the performance of the fourth quarter of 2017 was developed compared to the former quarter by the expanded supply of flagship smartphone panels for major OLED customers. However, profits of LCD department were decreased due to seasonally low demand and falling panel prices.

Samsung Electronics reported that profitability may be weakened due to the intensifying competition with LTPS LCD and sluggish demand for OLED in the first quarter of 2018. Samsung Electronics plans to expand sales portion of flagship product panels, diversifying customers and improve profitability by productivity improvement.

Although the LCD department is a seasonally low season, it is expected that the line rater of operation will be stabilized by high-resolution and large-scale trend of TV and effects of sports event in the first half of year. Samsung Electronics plans to increase profitability by strengthening yield and cost-cutting activities and expand sales portion of high value-added products such as UHD, large-size and quantum dot in order to raise profitability.

In 2018, OLED department is expected to become the mainstream in the mobile market. Samsung Electronics plans to actively respond to demand from major smartphone companies and expand its market share by strengthening technology differentiation from LTPS LCD.

Also, Samsung Electronics will strengthen its capabilities in new application areas such as IT and electronics to secure new growth based on technology and cost competitiveness.

LCD department reported that uncertainty of the market may be more severe as Chinese company expand its capacity and intensify their competition.

In the fourth quarter of 2017, Samsung Electronics sold 86 million cell phones and 7 million tablets. It is reported that sales volume of cell phone and tablet sales are expected to decline slightly compared to the first quarter of 2018.

Samsung Electronics’ facility investment in 2017 was a total of 43.4 trillion won and 13.5 trillion won was invested in the display business. In the case of display business, Samsung Electronics invested greatly on OLED capacity expansion to raise profits through flexible OLED panel customers. The 2018 investment plan is not yet settled but is expected to decline compared to the last year.

Kwon Young Choi, managing director of Samsung Display said, “We are continuously expanding sales channels in China in order to reduce reliance on mobile OLED sales to specific customers and decrease of volumes of orders on iPhone X will not be significantly affected by temporary fluctuations in demand.”

He added that “we are preparing various applications including foldable phone to meet customer demand and it is important to raise the level of perfection to the level desired by the market and consumers.” He also said that “the new production complex (A5) has not yet been specifically defined in terms of operation time, production products, and production volume.”