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Tianma’s OLED shipments for smartphones were second only to BOE among Chinese makers

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TIANMA

TIANMA

It was found that Tianma, a Chinese OLED panel supplier, supplied the second most OLED panels for smartphones after BOE in the first quarter of 2023. In the meantime, among Chinese companies, Visionox has always been in second place after BOE in OLED shipments for smartphones, but it gave way to Tianma for the first time in this first quarter.

Tianma’s major customers include Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, Honor, and Lenovo. It is analyzed that one of the reasons for Tianma’s increase in OLED shipments is that it brought some of TCL CSOT’s shipments to Xiaomi.

Thanks to orders from Xiaomi, Tianma’s panel shipments have soared since the fourth quarter of last year. Tianma’s OLED panel shipments for smartphones in the fourth quarter of 2022 increased by about 3 times compared to the previous quarter, and in the first quarter of 2023, OLED panel shipments for smartphones reached 8.5 million units, an increase of 430% compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

If this atmosphere continues, it is analyzed that there is a possibility that Tianma will overtake Visionox and produce the second largest number of OLED panels for smartphones after BOE in China for the first time this year.

▶ China Trend Report Inquiry

China Aims for the Foldable Phone Market with Multiple Foldable Phone Launches

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Samsung Electronics widely successful release of its foldable phones, Galaxy Z Fold 3 and Flip 3 last year has risen expectations for establishing foldable phones into the mainstream. Chinese companies such as Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo are also releasing multiple foldable phones.

As the first foldable phone in China, Huawei has been releasing the Mate X series every year since its launch in 2019. The Mate X and the Mate Xs released in 2020 are 8 inches in size and folds outward. The external display is 6.6 inches with a resolution of 1148×2480 and an aspect ratio of 19.5:9.

Mate X2 was introduced in February 2021 with 8 inches for the internal display and the external display is 6.45 inches OLED with a resolution of 1160 x 2700 and an aspect ratio of 21:9. Colorless PI was applied to the cover window. Mate X2 folds inward instead of Mate X’s outward folding display.

P50 Pocket released in December 2021 is a clamshell phone similar to the Samsung Flip 3. The internal display is 6.9 inches with 120Hz refresh rate and an aspect ratio of 21:9. The cover window is 1.1 inches circular type.

Honor released a foldable phone, Magic V on January 10th 2022.

The internal display is 8 inches with 90Hz refresh rate and the external display is 6.5 inches with 120Hz refresh rate. The cover window is colorless PI. Both internal and external panels are made in BOE B11(Mianyang) line. The initial production is estimated to be 50,000 and the estimated total production volume is 100,000 to 200,000.

According to the sales result, the Visionox panel might be applied to the product.

Vivo is about to release a new foldable, the NEX FOLD. Vivo filed patents for NEX FOLD, NEX ROLL, and NEX SLIDE.

NEX fold’s internal display is 8.03 inches with QHD 120Hz and the external display is 6.53 inches with FHD 120Hz. Both internal and external display has the same refresh rate. The display panel is Samsung Display’s LTPO, and the cover window is planned to be 30 um thickness UTG.

It is planned to be released in March 2022, but no official announcement has been made.

Samsung Display is using UTG(Ultra Thin Glass) for the cover window and most Chinese panel companies are using Colorless PI. Many Chinese companies are introducing foldable phones, but durability issues are reported on many social network media posts. Chinese panel makers still have much to go in terms of quality in technology and production cost when compared to Samsung Display.

Xiaomi re-adopts OLED in two years.

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After two years of the launch of Redmi Pro and Mi Note2 in 2016, Xiaomi adopted OLED again.

On May 31, Xiaomi unveiled its flagship smartphones such as Mi8, Mi8 Explorer Edition, Mi8 SE, and its smart watch Mi band3, to mark the eighth anniversary of its founding.

Xiaomi implemented the full-screen by applying a notch design to the Mi8. The size of the OLED applied to the Mi8 is 6.21 inch and the resolution is 2248×1080 (402ppi). The display area, which represents the percentage of display to smartphone, is 83.8%.

Compared with the iPhoneX, it features the same notch design, OLED application, and vertical dual camera. However, the size of the display is about 0.4 inch bigger, and the display area is about 0.9% wider. Unlike iPhoneX, there is a difference that there is a bezel at the bottom.

<Comparison between iPhoneX and Mi8, source: GSMARENA>

Compared to the Redmi Pro launched in 2016, the display increased by about 21%, DA by about 16%. In comparison with the Mi Note2, the display was widened by about 9% and DA by about 13%.

<Comparison of display size and display area for the smartphones applied with OLED>

The display of the Mi8 Explorer Edition has the same specifications as the Mi8. However, you can see the parts of the smart phone directly by eye because the back side is transparent. Like the VivoX21, fingerprint recognition is possible from the front of the display.

Xiaomi’s Mi8 SE applies with a 5.88-inch OLED with a resolution of 1080×2244 (423ppi), and Mi band3, the successor to Mi band2, has a 0.78-inch OLED.

The Mi8 and Mi8 SE is to be released on June 5 and 8 and will be sold for RMB 2,699 (about Korean Won 450,000) and RMB 1,799 yuan (about Korean Won 300,000 won) respectively. The release date of Mi8 explorer is not yet fixed and its supply price is expected to be RMB 3,699 (about Korean Won 620,000).

Expect to hit 1 trillion won in AMOLED emitting material market

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Following the success of Galaxy S Series using AMOLED, Apple’s iPhone has started to use flexible AMOLED as its basic display, resulting in the spike in demand for Chinese smartphone companies’ AMOLED.

At MWC2017, 13 companies showcased AMOLED-based smartphones. The companies whose market share is expanding in China, the world’s biggest smartphone market, such as Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, and ZTE are active to adopt AMOLED smartphone.

<The Number of AMOLED Smartphone Companies at MWC>

With this market trend, the emitting material market for AMOLED is expected to reach 1 trillion won this year.

Hyun Jun Jang, senior researcher of UBI Research forecast that the emitting material market will reach $960 million in 2017 and increase to $33.6 billion in 2021.

<Emitting Material Market Forecast>

According to Hyun Jun Jang, senior researcher, Apple’s AMOLED emitting material market is expected to account for $560 million among $33.6 billion of total emitting material market, and Korea will capture 70% as it is leading the AMOLED panel market while creating a 23.8 billion-dollar market.

[Analyst Column] LCD Industry Administration to Worsen after 3 Years

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Choong Hoon Yi, Chief Analyst, UBI Research

 

 

BOE is intending to carry out a large amount of investment in order to operate Gen10.5 LCD line from 2018. Meanwhile, key set makers including Apple, Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics, and Panasonic are devising strategy to move from LCD to OLED for smartphone and premium TV displays. As such, it is becoming more likely for the LCD industry to be in slump from 2018.

 

At present, the area where LCD industry can create profit is LTPS-LCD for smartphone. The forecast smartphone market for this year is approximately 15 billion units. Of this, Samsung Electronics and Apple are occupying 20% and 15% of the market respectively. OLED equipped units are less than 2 billion.

 

However, from 2018 the conditions change greatly. Firstly, Apple, which has been using LCD panel only, is estimated to change approximately 40% of the display to OLED from 2017 earliest and 2018 latest. Apple is testing flexible OLED panels of JDI, LG Display, and Samsung Display, and recommending them to invest so flexible OLED can be applied to iPhone from 2017. The total capa. Is 60K at Gen6. As new investments for Gen6 line of Samsung Display and LG Display are expected to be carried out from 2016, supply is theoretically possible from 2017.

 

Source: UBI Research Database

Source: UBI Research Database

 

If 5inch flexible OLED is produced from Gen6 line, under the assumption of 50% yield at 60K capa. 65 million units can be produced annually, and approximately 1 billion units if the yield is 80%. If Apple’s iPhone shipment in 2017 is estimated to be around 2.7 billion units, within the 50-60% yield range approximately 25% of the display is changed to OLED from LCD, and if yield reaches 80% around 40% will change. The companies that are supplying Apple with LCD for smartphone, LG Display, JDI, and Sharp, are expected to show considerable fall in sales and business. These 3 companies could be reduced to deficit financial structure just from Apple’s display change

 

Furthermore, as Apple is not producing low-priced phones, under the assumption that future iPhone could all have OLED display, Apple could cause the mobile device LCD industry to stumble after 3 years.

 

Samsung Electronics also is gradually changing Galaxy series display to OLED from LCD. Of the forecast 2015 shipment of 3 billion units, 50%, 1.5 billion units, has OLED display, but Samsung Electronics is expected to increase flexible OLED and rigid OLED equipped products in future. Particularly, as Apple is pushing for flexible OLED application from 2017, Samsung Electronics, whose utilizing OLED as the main force, is estimated to increase flexible OLED usage more than Apple. It is estimated that all Galaxy series product displays will be changed to OLED from 2019.

 

 

Under these assumptions, of the estimated smartphone market in 2020 of approximately 20 billion units, Samsung Electronics and Apple’s forecast markets’ 7 billion could be considered to use OLED.

 

Samsung Display is strengthening supply chain of set companies using their OLED panels. Samsung Display is supplying OLED panels to diverse companies such as Motorola and Huawei as well as Samsung Electronics, and also expected to supply rapidly rising Xiaomi from 2016. If smartphone display is swiftly changed to OLED from LCD from 2017, Chinese display companies that are currently expanding TFT-LCD lines are to be adversely affected.

 

Additionally, in the premium TV market, LG Electronics mentioned that they will focus on OLED TV industry at this year’s IFA2015. As a part of this, LG Display is planning to expand the current Gen8 34K to 60K by the end of next year. Furthermore, in order to respond to the 65inch market, Gen9.5 line investment is in consideration. In the early 2015, Panasonic commented that they were to withdraw from TV business but changed strategy with new plans of placing OLED TV on the market in Japan and Europe from next year.

 

As Samsung can no longer be disconnected from the OLED TV business, there are reports of investment for Gen8 OLED for TV line in 2016. Although OLED TV market is estimated to be approximately 350 thousand units this year, in 2016, when Panasonic joins in, it is expected to expand to 1.2 million units. The OLED TV’s market share in ≥55inch TV market is estimated to be only 4% but in premium TV market it is estimated to be significant value of ≥10%.

 

 

 

 

If Samsung Display invests in Gen8 OLED for TV line in 2016, from H2 2017 supply to Samsung Electronics is possible. As OLED Gen8 line’s minimum investment has to be over 60K to break even, it can be estimated that Samsung Display will invest at least 60K continuously in future.

 

Under these conditions, LCD industry can only be in crisis. Firstly, it becomes difficult for Sharp to last. Sharp, which is supplying TFT-LCD for Apple’s iPhones and LCD for Samsung Electronics’ TV, will lose key customers. Secondly, BOE, AUO, and JDI, the companies selling LCD panels to these companies, are not ready to produce OLED and therefore damage is inevitable.

 

BOE is carrying out aggressive investment with plans to lead the display industry in future with operation of Gen10.5 LCD line. Therefore, from 2018, as the main cash cow items disappear, administration pressure could increase.