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Samsung Display’s foldable OLED expected to exceed 50 million units in 2027

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Foldable OLED shipment ratio forecast

Foldable OLED shipment ratio forecast

According to the ‘2023 Small OLED Display Annual Report’ recently published by UBI Research, Samsung Display’s OLED shipments for foldable phones are expected to reach 50.9 million units in 2027 with an average annual growth rate of 28.1% from 18.9 million units in 2023.

According to the report, Samsung Display’s foldable OLED shipments in 2022 were analyzed to be 12.6 million units, accounting for 85.1% of global foldable OLED shipments in 2022. BOE, TCL CSOT, and Visionox mass-produced some foldable OLEDs, but Samsung Display led the foldable OLED market.

It is expected that Samsung Display will continue to dominate the foldable OLED market in the future. It seems difficult for TCL CSOT and Visionox to record annual shipments of more than 1 million units by 2027, and unless LG Display also secures a customer, the time for mass production of foldable phone panels is unclear.

Lastly, the report forecasted global OLED shipments for foldable phones to be 61.4 million units in 2027, with Samsung Display expected to account for 82.9% of the market with 50.9 million units and BOE with 9.6 million units and 15.7%.

▶ 2023 Small OLED Display Annual Report Sample Download

Rigid OLEDs for Smartphones are Expected to Fall 12.9% Annually to 96 Million Units by 2027

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According to the “4Q22 Small OLED Display Market Track” published quarterly by UBI Research, global shipments of rigid OLEDs for smartphones are expected to continue to decline.

Since the second half of 2022, shipments of rigid OLEDs for smartphones by Samsung Display have decreased significantly, and 19 million units were shipped in the third quarter, less than half of the same quarter last year. This trend continues in the fourth quarter, and Samsung Display’s shipments of rigid OLEDs for smartphones are expected to fall 20.8% annually from 2022 and reach only 50 million units by 2027.  Global shipments of rigid OLEDs for smartphones are expected to drop 12.9% annually to 96 million units by 2027.

On the other hand, shipments of flexible OLEDs for smartphones are expected to continue to increase at an annual growth rate of 7.4% from 2022. UBI Research predicts that Samsung Display will ship 220 billion flexible OLEDs in 2027 with an annual average growth rate of 2.2%, and BOE will ship 140 billion flexible OLEDs in 2027 with an annual average growth rate of 13%.

It is expected that global foldable OLED shipments will continue to expand. Global shipments of foldable OLEDs are expected to be 19 million units by 2022 and 90 million units by 2027. Samsung Display is leading the global foldable OLED market in the future, and it is expected to account for 89.1% of global foldable OLED shipments by 2027

The market share of foldable OLEDs is low at 2.7% in 2022 among small OLED markets under 10 inches, but it is expected to expand to 9.6% in 2027 and have a similar share to that of rigid OLEDs.

Rigid OLED shipment forecast for mobile device

Rigid OLED shipment forecast for mobile device

▶ 4Q22 Small OLED Display Market Track Sample Download

Small OLED Display Shipments in 2022 Are Expected to Reach 724.8 Million Units

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According to “3Q22 Small OLED Display Market Track” published quarterly by UBI Research, the market for small OLED displays in the second quarter of 2022 was estimated at $7.87 billion.

In the second quarter of 2022, the OLED small display market decreased by 16% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 9.7% compared to the same quarter last year. The Chinese market, the world’s largest market, has shrunk mobile devices shipment as Shanghai and some regions were quarantined due to COVID-19.

As a result, shipments of small OLED panels decreased from 150 million units in the first quarter to 130 million units in the second quarter. Although shipments of foldable OLED panels in the second quarter increased by 120,000 units from the first quarter to 3.12 million units, the market size fell short of expectations.

Small OLED market in 2Q 2022

Small OLED market in 2Q 2022

As some Chinese panel manufacturers are offering OLED panels for Smartphones below $30 recently, the rigid OLED market is expected to shrink rapidly.

It is predicted that shipments of foldable OLEDs will increase 6.1 million units from 10.3 million units last year to 16.4 million units this year. Although foldable phones are expected to replace Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy Note, there is no additional demand. In addition, it is predicted that the growth rate of foldable OLED markets will not be fast, due to Chinese panel manufacturers’ difficulty in purchasing UTGs for foldable OLEDs and it is affecting Chinese smartphone manufacturers’ production. In 2027, OLED shipments for foldable phones were significantly revised to 42 million units.

Small OLED display shipments by application (Watch, Smartphone, Foldable Phone) and the estimated shipments by 2027 are shown as a 100% cumulative graph.

Small OLED Shipments and Forecasts in 2Q 2022

Small OLED Shipments and Forecasts in 2Q 2022

Total shipments of small OLED display panels are expected to be 724.8 million units in 2022, and it is estimated that it will reach 937.8 million units in 2027. The proportion of foldable phones by application product in 2022 is 2.3% and is expected to increase to 4.5% by 2027.

“3Q22 Small OLED Display Market Track” analyzed OLED production capacity status for small OLED displays below 10 inches, and surveyed quarterly sales and shipments of major products sorted by major panel manufacturers, countries, generations, substrates, TFT technologies, and application products(Watch, Smartphone, Foldable phone). It analyzes ASP and OLED demand/supply by application and provides data on market prospects of small OLED displays from next 5 years to 2027.

▶ 3Q22 Small OLED Display Market Track Sample Download

Small OLED performance and forecast in the first quarter of 2021

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UBI Research has published a market track on the market performance of small OLED under 10 inches. The main application products are foldable phones, smartphones, and watches.

According to UBI Research’s small OLED market track, OLED shipments for smartphones (including foldable phones) in the first quarter were 140 million units, a decrease of 13.5% compared to the previous quarter (QoQ), but increase of 32.4% compared to the same quarter of the previous year (YoY).

In the first quarter of 2020, OLED shipments also decreased due to a decrease in smartphone sales due to the coronavirus outbreak.

The reason for the 13.5% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 is that shipments surged in the fourth quarter of last year due to iPhone launches and strong sales.

In terms of sales by company, Samsung Display and LG Display account for 79.0% and 11.3%, respectively, and Korean OLED dominate the market with 90.3%.

Cover window market forecast for foldable phones

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The biggest difference between flexible OLED and foldable OLED will be the cover window material. In terms of price competitiveness, various Colorless Poly Imide (CPI) are superior to suppliers, but in the end, the cover window market is expected to depend on which material Samsung Electronics and Apple choose.

Samsung Display plans to supply only foldable OLEDs using UTG (Ultra Thin Glass) to Samsung Electronics and other China this year, and is expected to adopt UTG as the main cover window material in the future.

BOE and CSOT currently focus on transparent PI, but they are securing technology by continuously collaborating with UTG-related glass processing companies. For this reason, according to the UBI Research component and materials market track, UTG is expected to occupy 80% of the market for foldable cover windows in the future, and transparent PI is low in price and easy to apply to products larger than 10 inches As a result, it is expected to be applied to low-end models, tablets, and notebook models.

 

In 2020, small OLED shipments increased by 3.4%↑, sales decreased by 2.8%↓

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Corona 19 and Huawei’s US sanctions negatively affected the OLED market for smartphones, but it was a plus with Apple’s strong sales of iphone 12.

Samsung Display completed the Y-OCTA renovation of the Apple line in 2020, and the LTPO TFT secured a 30K scale. By the first half of 2021, the company plans to convert the LTPS line from Apple’s line to the LTPO TFT line.

The foldable phones released by Samsung Electronics in 2020 are the Galaxy Z Flip released in February and the Galaxy Z Fold 2 released in September, both in-folding and using UTG (ultra thin glass). Galaxy Z Fold 2 is a product to which LTPO TFT technology is applied.

BOE failed several times without exceeding the approval process in Apple’s iPhone12 quality test, but received final approval for panel supply at the end of December 2020. BOE’s new line, B12, is an Apple module line that starts bringing in equipment from December 2020, and is aiming for mass production in November 2021.

According to the annual small OLED display report published by UBI Research, small OLED shipments in 2020 increased by 3.4% compared to 2019, but sales decreased by 2.8%. The increase in shipments is due to the increase in OLED for watches, and the decrease in sales is due to the decrease in OLEDs for smartphones.

In 2020, the total sales of OLED for smartphones was 26.7 billion dollars, of which Samsung Display accounted for 78.8% with 21 billion dollars. LG Display has sales of $2.8 billion and a market share of 10.5%. Samsung Display accounted for 91.7% with 2.35 million dollars in 2019. Smartphone sales in 2020 decreased by 6.68 million units compared to 2019.