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Shipments of Medium and Large OLEDs Over 10 inches Will Expand to 69.5 Million Units by 2027

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According to the “4Q22 Medium & Large OLED Display Market Track,” which combines the performance and prospects of OLEDs over 10 inches at UBI Research, medium and large OLEDs are expected to expand from 26.1 million in 2022 to 69.5 million in 2027.

It is predicted that OLED for TVs will lead the mid- to large-sized OLED market based on sales by 2027. Due to the global economic downturn, expected shipments in the future decreased from the previous quarter, but a total of 14.8 million units are expected to be shipped in 2027 at an annual average growth rate of 11.2%, recording sales of $9.18 billion. This is 62.8% of the total sales of medium and large OLEDs in 2027.

It is expected that OLED markets for IT such as laptop, tablet PC, and monitor will gradually bloom from 2024. The OLED market for IT is expected to be led by OLED for laptop, and 19.7 million units are expected to be shipped by 2027 with an annual average growth rate of 22.9%. In 2024, Apple’s OLED for iPads will be released in full-scale, and OLED markets for tablet PCs will expand. Although OLED shipments for tablet PCs are expected to be 2 million units in 2023, they are expected to be 7.2 million units in 2024 and 23.3 million units in 2027. The average annual growth rate from 2023 is 85.7%.

OLED for vehicles is also expected to grow at an annual average rate of 54.7% from 2022, and the market is expected to continue to expand.

Shipment ratio forecast by application

Shipment ratio forecast by application

▶ 4Q22 Medium & Large OLED Display Market Track Sample Download

Rigid OLEDs for Smartphones are Expected to Fall 12.9% Annually to 96 Million Units by 2027

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According to the “4Q22 Small OLED Display Market Track” published quarterly by UBI Research, global shipments of rigid OLEDs for smartphones are expected to continue to decline.

Since the second half of 2022, shipments of rigid OLEDs for smartphones by Samsung Display have decreased significantly, and 19 million units were shipped in the third quarter, less than half of the same quarter last year. This trend continues in the fourth quarter, and Samsung Display’s shipments of rigid OLEDs for smartphones are expected to fall 20.8% annually from 2022 and reach only 50 million units by 2027.  Global shipments of rigid OLEDs for smartphones are expected to drop 12.9% annually to 96 million units by 2027.

On the other hand, shipments of flexible OLEDs for smartphones are expected to continue to increase at an annual growth rate of 7.4% from 2022. UBI Research predicts that Samsung Display will ship 220 billion flexible OLEDs in 2027 with an annual average growth rate of 2.2%, and BOE will ship 140 billion flexible OLEDs in 2027 with an annual average growth rate of 13%.

It is expected that global foldable OLED shipments will continue to expand. Global shipments of foldable OLEDs are expected to be 19 million units by 2022 and 90 million units by 2027. Samsung Display is leading the global foldable OLED market in the future, and it is expected to account for 89.1% of global foldable OLED shipments by 2027

The market share of foldable OLEDs is low at 2.7% in 2022 among small OLED markets under 10 inches, but it is expected to expand to 9.6% in 2027 and have a similar share to that of rigid OLEDs.

Rigid OLED shipment forecast for mobile device

Rigid OLED shipment forecast for mobile device

▶ 4Q22 Small OLED Display Market Track Sample Download

Small OLED Display Shipments in 2022 Are Expected to Reach 724.8 Million Units

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According to “3Q22 Small OLED Display Market Track” published quarterly by UBI Research, the market for small OLED displays in the second quarter of 2022 was estimated at $7.87 billion.

In the second quarter of 2022, the OLED small display market decreased by 16% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 9.7% compared to the same quarter last year. The Chinese market, the world’s largest market, has shrunk mobile devices shipment as Shanghai and some regions were quarantined due to COVID-19.

As a result, shipments of small OLED panels decreased from 150 million units in the first quarter to 130 million units in the second quarter. Although shipments of foldable OLED panels in the second quarter increased by 120,000 units from the first quarter to 3.12 million units, the market size fell short of expectations.

Small OLED market in 2Q 2022

Small OLED market in 2Q 2022

As some Chinese panel manufacturers are offering OLED panels for Smartphones below $30 recently, the rigid OLED market is expected to shrink rapidly.

It is predicted that shipments of foldable OLEDs will increase 6.1 million units from 10.3 million units last year to 16.4 million units this year. Although foldable phones are expected to replace Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy Note, there is no additional demand. In addition, it is predicted that the growth rate of foldable OLED markets will not be fast, due to Chinese panel manufacturers’ difficulty in purchasing UTGs for foldable OLEDs and it is affecting Chinese smartphone manufacturers’ production. In 2027, OLED shipments for foldable phones were significantly revised to 42 million units.

Small OLED display shipments by application (Watch, Smartphone, Foldable Phone) and the estimated shipments by 2027 are shown as a 100% cumulative graph.

Small OLED Shipments and Forecasts in 2Q 2022

Small OLED Shipments and Forecasts in 2Q 2022

Total shipments of small OLED display panels are expected to be 724.8 million units in 2022, and it is estimated that it will reach 937.8 million units in 2027. The proportion of foldable phones by application product in 2022 is 2.3% and is expected to increase to 4.5% by 2027.

“3Q22 Small OLED Display Market Track” analyzed OLED production capacity status for small OLED displays below 10 inches, and surveyed quarterly sales and shipments of major products sorted by major panel manufacturers, countries, generations, substrates, TFT technologies, and application products(Watch, Smartphone, Foldable phone). It analyzes ASP and OLED demand/supply by application and provides data on market prospects of small OLED displays from next 5 years to 2027.

▶ 3Q22 Small OLED Display Market Track Sample Download

Chinese Government’s Aggressive Movement Toward Domestic Product Exclusivity. What Next for Korean Companies?

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Recently, there is a movement to manufacture display-related materials, materials, and equipment exclusively in China. According to the ‘2022 OLED Components and Materials Report’ recently published by UBI Research (www.ubiresearch.com), China National Development and Reform Commission(国家发展和改革委员会) or Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China(中华人民共和国工业和信息化部) are providing investment funds to Chinese OLED display-related developers and are rapidly moving towards domestic demand.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China is planning a large-scale support project for display-related materials, equipment, and parts for domestic demand in China. The companies selected for the project will receive unprecedented subsidies from the Chinese government. Recently, the Ministry of Public Information and Security is believed to have supported FMM and related evaporators and other equipment. In addition, the items promoted by the National Development and Development Committee of China for domestic demand will be developed and mass-produced within three years, and all domestic production will be carried out within five years.

In addition to government projects, companies are also active in domestic demand. BOE, China’s largest display maker, has already made significant investments for domestic demand. In March, BOE CEO Gao Wenbao, who felt the pressures due to volume and cost, ordered a special policy directly for purchase planning. In the process of diversifying business partners for cost reduction, BOE reviewed only domestic companies, excluding overseas companies. Of BOE’s investment in materials, materials and equipment for domestic demand, about 70% of the capital has already been invested. The investment is expected to be completed by 2023.

The Chinese government has included display in the national high-tech strategic industry early on and has provided unprecedented support to display companies such as BOE and TCL CSOT. In addition, the Chinese government is raising import tariffs on materials and parts that can be produced in China and is meeting the needs of domestic demand.

In order to widen the gap with China, which is closely chasing Korea from LCD to OLED, the Korean government must take active measures. The Korean government will designate display as a national high-tech strategic technology in the ‘Special Act on National Advanced Strategic Industries’, which will be enforced on the 4th of next month and will provide tax support and various benefits to display companies.

▶  2022 OLED Components and Materials Report Inquiry

Small OLED performance and forecast in the first quarter of 2021

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UBI Research has published a market track on the market performance of small OLED under 10 inches. The main application products are foldable phones, smartphones, and watches.

According to UBI Research’s small OLED market track, OLED shipments for smartphones (including foldable phones) in the first quarter were 140 million units, a decrease of 13.5% compared to the previous quarter (QoQ), but increase of 32.4% compared to the same quarter of the previous year (YoY).

In the first quarter of 2020, OLED shipments also decreased due to a decrease in smartphone sales due to the coronavirus outbreak.

The reason for the 13.5% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 is that shipments surged in the fourth quarter of last year due to iPhone launches and strong sales.

In terms of sales by company, Samsung Display and LG Display account for 79.0% and 11.3%, respectively, and Korean OLED dominate the market with 90.3%.

UBI Research holds the 1H Semester Seminar “OLED Market Analysis and Latest Technology Seminar (June 30, 2017 Federation of Korean Industries Head Office Building)

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■ 2017 1H general review of the technical issues and the market of OLED industry.

■ 2H09 market outlook and change point forecast through 1H issue analysis.

UBI Research will hold the 1H semester seminar: OLED market analysis and latest technology seminar which will be able to forecast OLED market issues in the first half of 2017 and predict market outlook and change points in 2H07 on June 30 (Fri) at Yeouido FKI Conference Center.

It will be analyzed the technical issues and market in the OLED industry in the first half of the 17th year under the theme of “OLED Market Analysis and Latest Technologies”. In addition, it seems to forecast the 2H OLED market and change points for 2H through 1H issue analysis.

In this seminar, technology development status and prospects of TADF OLED, Soluble OLED, and Flexible OLED technology that are emerging as next generation OLED technology will be intensively introduced with the key experts in related fields. It will be a place to look at the latest OLED technologies and to see in advance how OLED future technologies will evolve.

▲ Market forecasts by analyzing OLED industry investment and mass production in the first half of 2017(Lee Choong-Hoon, representative of UBI Research), ▲ A new display paradigm ‘OLED'(Kwon Seong-Ryul, team leader of Dongbu Securities), will intensively analyze future display industry with the theme. ▲ Recent trends of TADF OLED luminescent materials(Prof Lee Jun-Yeob of Sungkyunkwan University), ▲ A New approach to improve OLED luminescence efficiency(Prof. Kim Jae-Hoon, Hanyang University), ▲ Development of Highly Efficient Multi-Functional Emitting Materials for Organic Light-Emitting Diode Application(Prof Jin Sung-Ho of Pusan National University), ▲ Flexible Display Technology Development Trends and Challenges(Prof. Lee Ki-Yong, Hanyang University), ▲Plane Source Evaporation for Very High ppi AMOLED (OLEDON/Prof. Hwang Chang-Hoon of Dankook University). With the theme of ‘It is time to challenge’ he will present the latest technology issues and directions for further growth of the display industry.

In this seminar, we will take a comprehensive view of the market and technology from the overall OLED industry, investment perspective, and economic perspective, it is expected to be a place where various high-quality information and networking exchanges will be formed along with domestic core experts, and the status and future of display technology can be forecasted.