키워드로 전망하는 2016 OLED 산업

  1. Flexible AMOLED Investment

2016년에는 Samsung Display와 LG Display, BOE, Japan Display의 flexible AMOLED 양산라인에 대한 투자가 본격적으로 이루어 질 것으로 예상된다. Samsung Display는 신규 Galaxy모델에 flexible AMOLED panel을 적용하기 위해서는 양산라인 투자가 필수적이며, Apple에 flexible AMOLED panel을 공급하게 될 경우 2016년에 투자될 flexible AMOLED 양산라인의 규모는 상당히 커질 것으로 예상된다. LG Display도 구미 P6 line에 flexible AMOLED line 장비 발주가 본격적으로 이루어 질 것으로 예상되며, 이외에 Apple의 요구에 따라 추가적인 flexible AMOLED 양산라인 투자가 있을 것으로 전망된다. Japan Display도 Apple의 flexible AMOLED 공급업체 후보로 투자가 가능할 것으로 예상된다. BOE는 청두의 Gen6 45K flexible AMOLED 양산라인에 대한 발주가 본격적으로 시작될 것으로 전망된다.

 

  1. P10

LG Display가 2015년 4분기에 신규공장 건설과 일부 설비투자에 1조8400억원을 투입한다고 밝히며, 투자의 첫 단계로 대형 패널을 생산할 수 있는 P10 line의 공장 부지 조성을 시작했다. 하지만 아직 투자 방향을 결정하지 않은 상태이다. P10의 투자 방향은 대형 LCD 패널만 생산하거나 대형 OLED 패널을 생산하는 방향, 중소형 OLED 패널만 생산하는 방향, 대형과 중소형 OLED를 동시에 생산하는 방향이 있다. 중국의 8세대 LCD 설비 투자도 상당히 진행되고 있고, BOE의 10.5세대 LCD line도 투자가 결정되어 LG Display의 대형 LCD가 얼마나 수익을 거둘 수 있을지 고심해야한다. 또한 OLED TV의 소비가 늘어나고, Apple에 OLED 패널을 공급하는 것이 거의 기정 사실화 된 상황에서 공급량을 충족시키기 위해서 OLED 투자도 필수적이다. P10은 11세대 line 크기 공장 부지의 세계 최대 규모로 2016년에 있을 P10의 투자 방향 결정에 따라 OLED 시장의 개화 시기에 영향이 있을 것으로 예상된다.

 

  1. Chinese OLED

Everdisplay는 AMOLED panel을 중국의 일부 set업체에 공급하고 있으며, Visionox도 2016년부터 AMOLED panel을 본격적으로 공급할 것으로 예상되어, 대부분의 중국 OLED panel업체들의 OLED 양산 준비가 2016년에는 마무리 될 것으로 기대된다. 이에 따라 Everdisplay와 Visionox, Tianma등의 2차 투자도 가능할 것으로 예상되어 중국의 OLED 산업도 본격적인 움직임을 보일 것으로 예상된다.

 

  1. 증착 장비

Samsung Display와 LG Display, Japan Display, BOE의 flexible AMOLED 양산 라인 투자와 다른 중국 OLED panel 업체의 추가 증설이 2016년부터 본격적으로 진행될 것으로 예상되는 가운데 OLED 생산의 핵심 장비인 증착장비 발주가 이슈가 될 것으로 전망된다.

현재 양산에 적용중인 증착기는 대부분 일본의 Canon Tokki사의 증착기로 이미 양산라인에서 검증이 되어있기 때문에 Samsung Display와 LG Display, BOE, JDI등 대부분의 업체들에서 Canon Tokki사의 증착기 발주를 원할 것으로 예상된다. 하지만 Canon Tokki사의 증착기 제작 capa는 한정되어 있기 때문에 어떤 panel 업체에서 먼저 선점을 할 지가 이슈가 될 것으로 예상된다. 이와 동시에 국내 증착장비 업체들의 새로운 기회가 될 수 있을 것으로 전망된다.

 

  1. 삼성 OLED TV

현재 TV 산업의 트렌드는 LCD에서 OLED로 이동하고 있다. 이에 따라 삼성디스플레이는 TV용 대형 OLED 패널 사업을 재개하기 위한 연구를 지속하고 있다. 삼성디스플레이는 SMS 증착 방식을 사용하는 RGB OLED 기술과 white OLED, solution process OLED 기술을 모두 보유하고 있는 것으로 분석되지만 각 기술 마다 단점이 존재하기 때문에 어떤 방향으로 가야 할지 고심하고 있다. 먼저, RGB OLED 기술은 아직 Gen8 원장 기판에 증착하기 위한 장비가 아직 확보되지 않은 것으로 분석된다. Solution process OLED 방식은 재료 성능이 낮다는 점이 문제점으로 꼽히고 있다. White OLED 방식은 핵심 특허들을 LG디스플레이가 보유하고 있기 때문에 이를 회피하는 기술 개발이 선행되어야 한다. 이에 따라 삼성디스플레이가 어떤 기술을 적용해 생산 라인에 투자하고 TV 시장에 진입할 것인지 관심이 집중되고 있다.

 

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