Cover window market forecast for foldable phones

The biggest difference between flexible OLED and foldable OLED will be the cover window material. In terms of price competitiveness, various Colorless Poly Imide (CPI) are superior to suppliers, but in the end, the cover window market is expected to depend on which material Samsung Electronics and Apple choose.

Samsung Display plans to supply only foldable OLEDs using UTG (Ultra Thin Glass) to Samsung Electronics and other China this year, and is expected to adopt UTG as the main cover window material in the future.

BOE and CSOT currently focus on transparent PI, but they are securing technology by continuously collaborating with UTG-related glass processing companies. For this reason, according to the UBI Research component and materials market track, UTG is expected to occupy 80% of the market for foldable cover windows in the future, and transparent PI is low in price and easy to apply to products larger than 10 inches As a result, it is expected to be applied to low-end models, tablets, and notebook models.

 

In 2020, small OLED shipments increased by 3.4%↑, sales decreased by 2.8%↓

Corona 19 and Huawei’s US sanctions negatively affected the OLED market for smartphones, but it was a plus with Apple’s strong sales of iphone 12.

Samsung Display completed the Y-OCTA renovation of the Apple line in 2020, and the LTPO TFT secured a 30K scale. By the first half of 2021, the company plans to convert the LTPS line from Apple’s line to the LTPO TFT line.

The foldable phones released by Samsung Electronics in 2020 are the Galaxy Z Flip released in February and the Galaxy Z Fold 2 released in September, both in-folding and using UTG (ultra thin glass). Galaxy Z Fold 2 is a product to which LTPO TFT technology is applied.

BOE failed several times without exceeding the approval process in Apple’s iPhone12 quality test, but received final approval for panel supply at the end of December 2020. BOE’s new line, B12, is an Apple module line that starts bringing in equipment from December 2020, and is aiming for mass production in November 2021.

According to the annual small OLED display report published by UBI Research, small OLED shipments in 2020 increased by 3.4% compared to 2019, but sales decreased by 2.8%. The increase in shipments is due to the increase in OLED for watches, and the decrease in sales is due to the decrease in OLEDs for smartphones.

In 2020, the total sales of OLED for smartphones was 26.7 billion dollars, of which Samsung Display accounted for 78.8% with 21 billion dollars. LG Display has sales of $2.8 billion and a market share of 10.5%. Samsung Display accounted for 91.7% with 2.35 million dollars in 2019. Smartphone sales in 2020 decreased by 6.68 million units compared to 2019.

Middle and Large OLED sales growth of 40.2% in 2020

Although Samsung Display’s rigid OLED line is expected to decrease due to a decrease in Huawei’s volume due to the US production, demand for rigid OLEDs is expected to increase as demand for laptops, monitors and tablet PCs is increasing. To respond to this, investment in rigid OLED lines in A4 is also being reviewed. This year’s notebook OLED panel is expected to come out with more than 10 different model product lines, and Apple’s OLED production for iPad is scheduled to start from 2022, so demand for middle and large-sized OLED panels is expected to increase.

In addition, LG Display, a leader in P-OLED supplying in the automotive field, is planning to supply plastic OLEDs for automobiles to German car makers by producing premium OLED panels, and Samsung Display is also supplying OLED panels for vehicles.

According to the 2021 middle and large OLED annual report published by UBI Research, the total sales of middle and large-sized OLEDs in 2020 was $3.882.7 million, and last year was $2.63 billion, an increase of 40.2% from the previous year. By application, the notebook and automobile markets have increased remarkably, and the notebook, monitor, and automotive product markets are expected to grow in 2021.

Samsung Display’s QD-OLED mass production is expected to be around December 2021, and 65-inch panels are highly likely to be used by Sony. Samsung Electronics is expected to receive only 32-inch QD-OLEDs for monitors, not purchasing 65 inches.

LG Display’s 2020 TV OLED panel shipments were counted to 4.4 million units, and if the Guangzhou plant operates at 90K from the third quarter, the production capacity will reach 8.5 million units in 2021.

 

2020 OLED annual performance analysis

Total shipments of AMOLED in 2020 were aggregated to 575.78 million units. This is an increase of 20.41 million units compared to the 557.46 million units shipped in 2019.

The first OLED application products released in 2020 are for automobiles and for notebooks. Analysis by application product shows that the market has increased for foldable OLED, TV WRGB OLED, and watch OLED, and the decline is for smartphone and tablet PC.

Sales in 2020 were $32.68 billion, an increase of $2.3 billion from $32.45 billion in 2019. The insignificant increase in sales compared to the increase in shipments in 2020 is due to the decline in OLED unit prices for smartphones. This is because the OLED unit prices of iPhone and Galaxy S20, which are supporting the OLED market for smartphones, have decreased compared to 2019, and OLED shipments by Chinese panel makers have led to a decrease in OLED unit prices of Samsung Display.

In terms of sales by company, Samsung Display was found to be $22.3 billion, a decrease of $4.2 billion from $26.5 billion in 2019. Samsung Display’s smartphone OLED shipments amounted to 390 million units, a decrease of 40 million units compared to 430 million units in 2019, and sales decreased due to a drop in selling prices. As a result, Samsung Display’s market share in 2020 dropped sharply to 68.2%.

On the other hand, LG Display’s OLED sales reached $68.7 billion, and its market share surged to 21%. LG Display’s sales increase is due to increased shipments of POLEDs for iPhone and OLED panels for TVs.

BOE’s 2020 sales were $1.86 billion, up $7.5 billion compared to 2019. The market share was 5.7%, ranking third.

Korea’s market share in 2019 was 89.3%, falling below 90% for the first time.